As of late February 2026, Ukraine has not officially agreed to any US-backed ceasefire framework, and the diplomatic trajectory suggests significant obstacles remain before such an agreement could be formalized. Trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia have proceeded through multiple rounds — in Abu Dhabi (early February) and Geneva (mid-to-late February) — but have produced only limited procedural progress, including a prisoner-of-war exchange and agreements to resume military-to-military dialogue, rather than any substantive peace framework. The next major round is scheduled for March 4–5 in Abu Dhabi, described by participants as potentially decisive.
The core barrier to a qualifying agreement is the fundamental divergence between what the US and Russia are demanding and what Ukraine is willing to accept. Zelenskyy has repeatedly and publicly rejected any withdrawal from Donbas, demanded security guarantees of 20–30 years, and — in a striking statement in mid-to-late February — acknowledged that both the United States and Russia are effectively telling Ukraine to cede Donbas as a condition for ending the war. He explicitly stated that Trump is "not his ally," reflecting a sharp deterioration in US-Ukraine relations. These positions are far from the formal alignment that would be required for Ukraine to officially endorse a US-backed framework through a signed instrument, joint communiqué, or governmental decree.
Russia's posture further complicates the path to resolution. Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Moscow is using peace talks primarily as a stalling and manipulation tool, with no genuine intention of ending the war. Russia broke its commitment to halt strikes on energy infrastructure despite a direct request from Trump, launched massive attacks on the eve of the Geneva talks, and the Kremlin rejected US characterizations of progress. Reports also indicated Russia may withdraw from the March round entirely. Meanwhile, peacekeeping force plans stalled after allies acknowledged any deployment would require Putin's approval — underscoring how far the parties remain from a workable framework.
The key uncertainties heading into March center on whether the Abu Dhabi round produces a breakthrough or collapses, whether US pressure on Zelenskyy intensifies to the point of forcing a formal Ukrainian position shift, and whether Russia engages substantively or continues to stall. Zelenskyy has simultaneously expressed cautious optimism that the war could end by summer 2026 and instructed ministers to prepare for three more years of conflict — a dual-track posture that reflects the deep unpredictability of the current moment. The resolution deadline of December 31, 2025 has already passed in calendar terms relative to the news timeline, meaning events are now being assessed against a backdrop where no qualifying agreement was reached by that date.