As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, Paul Thomas Anderson's *One Battle After Another* has emerged as the overwhelming frontrunner for Best Picture, having assembled one of the most dominant precursor records in recent awards season memory. The film's sweep across major guild honors, international prizes, and craft categories has transformed what began as a competitive two-horse race into something approaching a coronation — though the final weeks of campaigning leave room for late-breaking surprises.
The contours of the race began taking shape in late January, when BAFTA nominations announced on January 27 positioned *One Battle After Another* and Ryan Coogler's *Sinners* as the season's twin pillars, with 14 and 13 nominations respectively. *Hamnet* and *Marty Supreme* also featured prominently, but the breadth of recognition for the top two films — spanning Best Picture, Cinematography, and Editing — reinforced a two-horse narrative that would define early coverage. Films that accumulate nominations across both craft and above-the-line categories historically consolidate broad Academy support, and the overlap between *One Battle After Another* and *Sinners* in technical races suggested the race's real contest was between those two titles.
That narrative shifted decisively in Anderson's favor over the following weeks. At the 79th BAFTA Film Awards, *One Battle After Another* claimed six prizes including Best Picture, dealing a significant blow to *Marty Supreme* and Timothée Chalamet, who departed without a single win. The BAFTA result was compounded by the London Critics' Circle Awards, where Anderson's film swept four prizes including Best Film, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actor for Sean Penn. Then, on February 6–8, Anderson claimed the Directors Guild of America Award — historically the single most reliable predictor of the Oscar for Best Director — effectively shifting his candidacy from frontrunner to near-consensus choice. The DGA win also carries significant Best Picture implications, given the strong historical alignment between the two honors.
The final stretch of precursor season has only deepened *One Battle After Another*'s advantage. The film led nominations at the 32nd Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards), whose voters overlap substantially with the Academy's acting branch, making it the most consequential remaining precursor for the acting categories. Simultaneously, the film claimed top honors at the 51st César Awards in Paris, demonstrating rare cross-continental appeal. Meanwhile, the Norwegian film *Sentimental Value*, directed by Joachim Trier and starring Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning, earned nine Oscar nominations — a historic first for Norway — generating significant international attention and placing Trier in the Best Director conversation. The film's availability to home audiences ahead of the ceremony broadened its reach, though it remains a longer-shot challenger to Anderson's dominance.
The Best Actor race has run on a parallel but complicated track. Timothée Chalamet entered the season with momentum from Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins for *Marty Supreme*, holding a clear lead over Leonardo DiCaprio. However, the campaign was clouded by renewed scrutiny over a decade-old scandal involving director Josh Safdie and criticism from the family of the real person who inspired Chalamet's character. The controversy, combined with the film's shutout at the BAFTAs, has introduced uncertainty into what was once a seemingly settled race. DiCaprio remains a credible challenger, with Wagner Moura (*O Agente Secreto*) considered a longer shot.